19.05.25 - 23.05.25
Results of the previous week
| NG +19.09% | PL +8.30% | VIX +5.50% |
AAPL -6.35% | COFFEE -4.17% | YM -1.79% |
Last week, stock indices began a downward correction. The movement was largely driven by technical factors, including profit-taking on long positions. In addition to that, markets are concerned that the US budget deficit won't be reduced in the current fiscal year. News that Moody's had downgraded the United States' credit rating added to the negative sentiment.
In the forex market, the dollar mostly remained under pressure. Foreign investors' interest in US Treasury bonds is falling, which is causing demand for the dollar to drop. As a result, the US dollar is falling against the euro, yen, British pound and other currencies. Gold prices have begun to rise again as the dollar weakens.
By the end of the week, Brent crude oil prices had fallen to $63.75. The drop was in reaction to a report by Bloomberg that OPEC+ is considering significantly increasing production. According to preliminary data, production volume could grow to 411,000 barrels per day in July.
Key events of the current week
| The US. Durable goods orders USD/JPY | DATE 27.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Durable goods orders are an important indicator that makes it possible to forecast companies' future activity. That's why it's an important tool for assessing the state of the US economy. World analysts expect the indicator to decline sharply in the reporting period. This could negatively impact the rate of GDP growth, which is already showing signs of slowing down. If this trend continues, it could provide grounds for the Federal Reserve to cut its key interest rate. That would be unfavourable for the dollar. In this environment, USD/JPY could continue to drop towards 141.60. | |||||
| Germany. Unemployment figures EUR/USD | DATE 28.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Germany's economy remains in recession. GDP growth rates have been negative since the end of 2023. Changes in logistics and energy costs are contributing to this. Some large industrial companies are closing down, while others are moving their production to other countries. This is dealing a blow to employment numbers, with global analysts expecting unemployment to rise, which is bad news for the euro.Against this background, EUR/USD could form a downward correction toward 1.1200. | |||||
| US Federal Reserve meeting minutes XAU/USD | DATE 28.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US Federal Reserve chairman was traditionally cautious in his comments after the central bank's latest meeting. He still didn't say anything new, noting only that the Fed would make a rate decision based on incoming macroeconomic statistics. Key reports haven't been much cause for optimism recently. In Q1 2025, the GDP growth rate slowed to 2% year over year after coming in at 2.5% in Q4 2024. Meanwhile, the US is seeing inflation increase. Despite that, global analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by the end of the year. This is unfavourable for the dollar, but it's good news for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD could continue to rise to 3370.00. | |||||
![The US and China Calm Markets [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_1928985866_17.jpg?itok=cU2CoNnj)
